Adapting to Uncertainty: A Personal and Industry Perspective

About 11 years ago, my wife and I were living in Colorado with our two (at the time) sons. After spending junior high, high school, college and some time working for the same company after college, I was ready for a change of employer and scenery. Eventually, I received a call from Greensboro, NC.  

After a trip to North Carolina for an interview, I accepted the job. We knew no one — we were starting over completely. However, I was confident we would carve out a spot in our new community by getting involved in via sports, service, coaching and being a good neighbor.

Fast forward over a decade, we now have four sons, great neighborhood friends, a strong church community and hundreds of connections through sports — we have made North Carolina our home. Despite the uncertainty that a move across the country presented, I knew we would put in the effort and work to make our family a part of this community. We were going to make it work — failure was not an option.

Similarly, domestic hardwood plywood is entering yet another time of uncertainty. Instead of a move across the country, we had the COVID dip and rise. Then, we had short-lived stability before the potential tariffs between the U.S. and Canada arose. This presents great potential for some large changes in the industry. 

However, just like our family move, I am confident we will all get through this as we continue to do the right thing for our environment and raw materials, our customers, our employees and our country.

As we move through the early months of 2025, the hardwood plywood market in North America is in a solid position, even with the aforementioned uncertainties on the horizon. At CFP, we anticipate small to moderate growth in demand this year, with a generally stable outlook through 2029. That’s good news for CFP and our customers.

That said, the trade landscape remains dynamic. While demand conditions are encouraging, potential shifts in U.S. trade policy could have meaningful impacts on pricing, supply chains and competitive positioning for manufacturers across the industry.

One of the more immediate concerns facing our industry is the possibility of new tariffs on Canadian hardwood plywood imports. Given the close integration of U.S. and Canadian markets, any tariff-driven cost increases could have a cascading effect. The proposed 25% rise in costs for both finished goods and raw materials would put significant pressure on producers with operations or sales in both countries.

For companies that source raw materials from Canada or depend on cross-border trade for finished goods, these tariffs could require price adjustments, supply chain restructuring or even changes in sourcing strategies. While some domestic manufacturers may see this as an opportunity to capture market share, the overall impact on pricing and profitability is harder to predict. If tariffs come into effect, we could see increased volatility in the market as companies adjust.

Beyond North America, there’s another significant factor that could reshape our industry — potential changes in global trade policies from the Trump administration. The extent of this impact will depend on how aggressively the administration moves to curtail imports and whether specific duties or broader trade restrictions come into play. 

While some of these trade policy changes could benefit U.S. producers, they also bring a level of uncertainty. Tariffs and trade restrictions don’t always play out as expected, and the market’s response can be unpredictable.

Given these uncertainties, our team at CFP approaches the coming years with a measured, proactive strategy. While we remain optimistic about the steady demand outlook through 2029, we’re also keeping a close eye on trade developments, cost structures and customer needs. Our focus remains on providing high-quality, sustainable hardwood plywood while ensuring supply chain resilience and as much pricing stability as possible for our partners.

For cabinet manufacturers and other end users, it’s worth considering how potential shifts in trade policy could impact your material sourcing and cost structures. Staying informed and maintaining flexibility in supply chain planning will be key as the regulatory environment continues to evolve.

We’ll continue to monitor these developments and provide updates as the situation unfolds. In the meantime, if you have any questions about how these potential changes could impact your business, we’re always here to help navigate the shifting landscape together.

Whatever happens in Washington, I am confident that we will find a way to successfully adjust — just like my wife, sons and I did those 11 years ago.