From Driveway Dreams to Industry Insights: A Vision for 2025 in Hardwood Plywood

Since I was a young boy, basketball has been my favorite sport. 

I remember playing against second- and third-graders when I was in kindergarten in New York because I was a bit taller and more skilled than my classmates. My family moved from New York to California for about a year, and my parents elected to do homeschooling.  

Every day after school, I’d shoot and dribble in the driveway, waiting for my Dad to come home. He never let me win — but he’d let me get close enough to think I had a chance. I’d do the same routine every day, hoping that today would be the day I’d beat him.  

Eventually, I beat him when I was around 12 years old. In high school, I was All-Conference and All-State.  I played on the practice team in college and pro-am in the summers and had a short stint in semi-pro ball. After that, I just played pickup at local gyms.

At one gym, there was a man who was about 50 years old, and he had four sons, ages 17 to 28. I had just become a father, and right then and there, I had a dream to do what that 50-year-old man did: to play a pickup game with my four sons — despite me only having one son at the time…

Fast forward over a decade, and my wife and I indeed have four sons! Last night, I played pickup games with the oldest two (the younger two aren’t big or old enough yet). It will be a special memory for me; a dream come — partially — true.

Like my dream to play hoops with my sons, I’ve had a dream come true at work as well. I started at Columbia in 2013, and until 2019, the domestic hardwood plywood industry was relatively easy to project.  

Housing starts were a great predictor, and the only hiccup to my forecast models was the introduction of flatpack cabinets imported from China — a new threat we were able to identify and adjust for early on.  

Then COVID hit, completely messing up my models. Then, we had COVID recovery.  After that, we dealt with inflation and interest rates spiked, causing more instability in our forecast models. However, we seem to have reached an equilibrium of sorts. And the dream has come true — we finally have a very high level of confidence in what we can expect in 2025 for the domestic hardwood plywood industry.

Currently, the U.S. economy is navigating through a period of high inflation and rising interest rates, but there are signs of stabilization. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes in 2023 and 2024 aimed to cool down inflation are expected to have their full effect by 2025. 

While inflation is likely to come down, it probably will still hover above the historical 2% target — stabilizing around 3% to 4%. Economic growth (i.e., GDP) is expected to be modest, with some potential upside.

A big part of the outlook for the hardwood plywood market is still clearly tied to the housing sector. Homebuilding and remodeling have historically been major drivers of plywood demand, and in 2025, housing is expected to follow a steady, albeit slightly slower, growth trend. 

There’s likely to be a continued shortage of affordable homes, with demand for single-family homes remaining relatively strong, especially in suburban areas.

On the flip side, high mortgage rates (which are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels) could dampen the enthusiasm of homebuyers and keep existing homeowners from moving or refinancing. 

This could somewhat slow down remodeling activity, though the trend toward home improvements remains strong, especially in older homes. Consumers may prioritize smaller, less expensive upgrades, but the need for quality materials, like hardwood plywood, will continue.

The domestic hardwood plywood market itself is positioned to see moderate (2% to 4%) growth in 2025, driven by the aforementioned expected strength in housing starts and several other factors:

1. Sustainability Trends

Consumer demand for sustainable and eco-friendly materials continues to grow, and hardwood plywood fits well into this narrative. 

Plywood is often seen as a more sustainable alternative to other construction materials because it is made from renewable resources and can be sourced from certified forests that adhere to sustainable logging practices. 

With increased awareness around sustainability, it’s likely that demand for eco-conscious products like hardwood plywood will continue to rise.

The U.S. is also seeing an increase in “green building” certifications, which require the use of sustainable materials. As building codes become stricter around environmental performance, more contractors and builders will likely turn to hardwood plywood for projects that require LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) certification or other green-building standards.

2. Supply Chain and Production Dynamics

Supply chain issues that have plagued the plywood industry — such as fluctuations in raw material prices, shipping delays and labor shortages — are expected to improve in 2025. 

While global issues such as the availability of timber in certain regions (especially in countries like Russia and Canada) could still pose risks, U.S. producers are expected to benefit from greater access to domestic timber resources and more efficient production technologies. This could result in more stable pricing for hardwood plywood, benefiting suppliers and customers.

The hardwood plywood industry in 2025 looks set for steady progress, provided it can navigate these uncertainties effectively. The outlook is positive, especially if market players continue to innovate and meet the evolving demands of the construction, cabinet and furniture industries.  

All in all, it looks like 2025 will be a solid year.  No matter what your dreams are, I hope they come true.  Here’s to a great 2025 and the remainder of the decade for all in the hardwood plywood industry.